pamThe definitive guide for football fans and bettors on how to read football predictions.
There isa lot of football predictions around. However, without knowing what a prediction is saying, it is not useful. Many followers just look at the tip and see Home Win or Over 2.5 and assume what the numbers, abbreviations and confidence percentage are. This guide shows you how to understand football predictions properly and to be able to evaluate them with your mind.
What a Football Prediction is All About
A football prediction is a guess that is made based on information. It’s not a certainty. The basis for good predictions is looking at a team’s form, a head to head record, injuries, home and away record, goals scored and conceded, and sometimes some advanced metrics like expected goals (xG).
A red card, a deflected shot or a goalkeeper’s game of his life can help undo the best analysis. Remember from the beginning that prediction is not certain, it is only a measure of probability.
Understanding the Common Markets
Short codes are the most common codes used by most prediction sites. The first step is to learn them.
Match Result: 1X2, 1 means home team win, X means draw, 2 means away team win.
Double Chance (1X, X2, 12): This means that this is two of the three possibilities. 1X denotes the home win or draw, X2 denotes the draw or away win, and 12 denotes away win or home win (but not draw). These are safer but generally
pay less.
Over/Under Goals: “Over 2.5″ indicates that the match will be made up of three or more goals. Under 2.5” is 2 goals or less. The “.5” eliminates the chance of a tie.
BTTS (Both Teams To Score): “BTTS Yes” is a prediction that both teams will score at least one run. The outcome is “BTTS No” if at least one team doesn’t score.
Handicap (AH or EH): A virtual head start or handicap is given to one team through Asian or European handicaps. For instance, the tip “Arsenal -1” will require Arsenal to score a goal or more. In the Asian line, if it is a one-goal win, it is also a push and the stake is returned.
Correct Score: Guesses made for the exact final score, e.g., 2-1. These are the ones that are typically the most challenging.
HT/FT (Half Time/Full Time): Guesses the outcome after the half time and again at the end of the match. For instance X/1 is a draw at half time and a home victory at the end of the game.
Understands probabilities & percentages
Many prediction sites display percentages by each option, like Home 55% Draw 25% Away 20%. These numbers represent the model and tipster’s confidence in the odds of each matches.
If you play the same game 100 times and it is always between the same two teams, the home team would be predicted to win approximately 55% of the games. A high percentage does NOT mean a “safe” result.
If the percentages are fairly close, such as 38%, 32% and 30% the match is open and unpredictable. If one outcome is consistently over 70% the predictor is clear about a favourite.
Predictions and Odds are related.Predictions are related to odds.
Odds and probabilities are two ways of expressing the same idea. Implied probability can be calculated by dividing one by the decimal odds and multiplying by 100. Odds of 2.00 suggest a 50% chance. Odds of 1.50 suggest about 67%.
This conversion gives you an idea of the value of a stock. For example, if a prediction site offers 60% of winning and a bookmaker offers 45%, the odds offered by the prediction site are favorable. Keep in mind that a bookmaker has a margin in all their odds, so it is common that the sum of all the implied probabilities can exceed 100%.
Confidence Ratings and Stars Rating
Some tipsters include a degree of confidence, star ratings or descriptors such as “Banker,” “Safe” or “Risky. They indicate the confidence of the predictor in the tip. There are other ways for a ‘banker’ to lose. With time, see if high confidence tips are profitable or not. Otherwise, the rating system isn’t giving you much information.
The teacher’s attention should be drawn to the Reasoning, Not Just the Pick.
The most helpful predictions tell why. A good preview will discuss form, recent form is a must (see last six matches for example), injuries, suspensions, tactical match ups, motivation (relation, title race, fixture congestion), and injuries. Without any reasoning provided for the prediction, there’s no way to determine if it’s a thorough prediction or a random guess.
A key point to remember when reading form guides, is that context is key. Having three wins against teams at the top of the table is not the same as having three wins at the bottom of the table.
Look at the track record of the source before you buy its product.
Always check the track record of any prediction service before you use it. Past results of a reliable source are made public, even losses. Beware of any individual who can only display winning slips or guarantees “100% sure” or “set match” advice. There are no honest predictors that can make an absolute guarantee, and so called “fixed-match” sellers are almost always scams.
One good indicator is the long term hit rate and the average odds. Simply put, a tipster who makes 80% of the tips at 1.20 can easily lose money in the long run, yet someone who makes 40% at average odds of 3.00 can make money in the long run.
Common Pitfalls to Watch Out For
Do not make predictions that are sure things. If you have many tips in one accumulator, the more tips you add, the more times you risk it. Avoid chasing losses by increasing your bets after a losing day. But don’t look a gift horse in the mouth – a late change in team news, such as a star striker missing for a couple of hours before the game kicks off, can make all the difference.
Final Thought
There are three key elements to reading a football forecast correctly: market knowledge, understanding the odds and the reasoning and source of the tip. If you can do that, then prediction is no longer about instructions to be followed but it is about understanding the matches.
If you do bet, make sure you know how much you can afford to lose, don’t go past that amount, and don’t gamble for money; gamble for wisely.
